Two-Handed Sword
Opinion Column
Author: Marcelo Fabián Monges
Writer and journalist
Wednesday, April 5, 2023
The signs that nobody seems to see or hear.
Many are the indications in recent days that the use of a Nuclear Weapon could be used by Putin in the face of the failure on the battlefield, in his invasion of Ukraine, by his army of conventional weapons.
The threats to use Nuclear Weapons by Putin started from the first day of the invasion of Ukraine. Since then they have not ceased and are increasing. But in recent days there are two factors that may begin to make us fear the worst.
First, intelligence data indicates that Putin has begun to make military moves that would reveal that he has set in motion a plan for a nuclear attack in Ukraine. Secondly, coinciding with such a large piece of information is the fact that the Russian government has begun a campaign to prepare public opinion inside the country to make them think "that a nuclear war is not a bad thing".
All this doesn’t seem to faze anyone in the rest of the world, neither in the military field, nor in the field of declarations.
The U.S. government, in the face of this, simply seems to be imbued with the lax spirit of President Biden. The first military power in the world, has assumed Putin's threats to use Nuclear Weapons, threats launched permanently as of February 24, 2022, the day of the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, practically abandoning the theory of mutual destruction. Something that served during the Cold War to prevent one of the two powers from using Nuclear Weapons, much less one against the other, because this would
guarantee the destruction of both nations, and most probably of the entire planet. In return, the US government has assured that, if Putin were to use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine, NATO would destroy the entire Russian army located in Ukraine, including its navy. This would be done with conventional weapons and breaks with the theory or threat of mutual destruction. This gives Putin an enormous advantage because with this limited, very limited, response to a similar attack with nuclear weapons, neither the Russian territory, nor its government, nor its population would be in danger.
If we analyze what could be, in Putin's vision, the elements that for him would justify this decision, there are the following:
- 1) After the decision of the International Criminal Court to issue an arrest warrant against Putin, Russia has the war, in the political arena, completely lost. After that, internationally, Putin and Russia are international pariahs. In the face of this, it may be that Putin's reading of reality is that the only thing left for him to do is to use force. As can be seen by studying most of his behavior and actions, this is the main guideline for action in his political and military doctrine.
- 2) Russia is doing worse and worse on the battlefield. According to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, Russia has lost 175,000 soldiers since the invasion began.
- 3) Zelensky has been invited to the next NATO meeting to be held in Lithuania in July, which is a much more decisive way for the largest Western military alliance to say NO to Putin's pretensions.
- 4) Putin sees that Poland has delivered Mig 29 aircraft to Ukraine, and other countries are also about to do so, although to a lesser extent. Something similar is happening with the delivery of tanks.
- 5) Finland's entry into NATO extended Russia's borders with NATO and Putin is achieving the opposite of what he intended also in the military field.
- 6) There is a very serious warning from Putin, for the delivery by the United Kingdom, of war munitions with depleted uranium.
- 7) The Wagner Group, the group of mercenaries and murderers characterized by their ruthlessness, hired by Putin's government, is doing extremely badly with the Ukrainian army.
- 8) Although Putin makes an effort to pretend not to, the economic sanctions imposed by the West have brought Russia serious economic problems, even to be able to manufacture ammunition for its army.
- 9) Putin has begun to show a level of permanent provocations, which show some desperation.
- 10) By political means, Russia has no chance of regaining a leading role in the world order.
We could go on listing causes.
What is alarming is not only the weak political and discursive response of Joe Biden's government, of the West, of NATO, but also the absence of the whole of humanity on the world scene, shouting NO TO WAR, NO TO THE USE OF ATOMIC WEAPONS.
The very idea should shake to tears any human being capable of imagining it. The possibility of a nuclear attack should move every inhabitant of the earth from shock on the level of feeling to action: to do everything possible to prevent it.
However, since the invasion of Ukraine began, no one, or almost no one has come out to demonstrate in the world against the use or probable use of nuclear weapons. At least not in large numbers. There have been no significant or poor mobilizations against the use of Atomic Weapons in the big cities, neither in the West nor in the world.
A nuclear bomb means thousands or millions of people incinerated at more than 4 thousand degrees of heat. In addition to the irreparable damage to the planet and the environment. This depends on where the weapon of mass extermination was dropped.
A type of weapon, Atomic Weapons, that should be prohibited firstly for moral reasons, secondly, for humanitarian reasons and thirdly, because the use of these weapons is beyond the use of reason. It cannot be that a human being, that some human beings are capable of that level of atrocities, of mass murdering other human beings, for a question of power, or for whatever reason they want to wield, it simply cannot be. It should not be legally permitted, either. And yet, there is nothing in the International Legal Order that punishes the use of Nuclear Weapons, no international legislation, no convention.
We all, as human beings, as natural inhabitants of the planet, should be responsible for what happens to humanity. Everybody should be responsible for what happens to the planet. Therefore, the whole world should be condemning a madman like Putin, capable of using Nuclear Weapons in order to impose his pretensions and to become world leader by force, outside of any reason and international law. If only the whole of humanity would act before it is too late. A Crime Against Humanity such as Putin's Use of Atomic Weapons in Ukraine will not be an isolated problem, it will never be a Ukrainian problem. If the whole of humanity does not realize that it will be everyone's problem, it is a big mistake. The mere fact that this war is taking place now and that innocent civilians, women and children are being murdered there, as Russia is doing, should be felt and understood as a problem of all humanity.
Marcelo Fabián Monges is the author of ten books. His latest published title is: " Putin The invasion of Ukraine The threat to all humanity".
